Global geographical range and population size of the habitat specialist Codonoblepharon forsteri (Dicks.) Goffinet in a changing climate

• Articles in non-SCI journals - international
• Feb, 2022

Summary:

Introduction: Codonoblepharon forsteri(Dicks.) Goffinet is a rare epiphytic mosscharacteristically associated with water-filled holes in trees. We reviewed its range andpopulation and assessed effects of climate change.

Methods: An inventory of sites from whereCodonoblepharon forsterihas been recorded wascompiled. Extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO) were calculated.Population size was estimated, treating an occupied tree as an‘individual-equivalent’of themoss. Climatic conditions of the species’current distribution were characterised, and anensemble model of its distribution was generated. The latter was projected onto presentand future climatic layers.

Key results: Codonoblepharon forsterihas been recorded from 19 countries and 205 sites inEurope, North Africa and Southwest Asia. It has been undergoing an overall decline. Mostsites have few occupied trees, and a world population of 1000–10,000 individual-equivalentsis estimated. Model projections suggest that the species will experience a range increase of+0.36–0.65 by 2050 and +0.35–0.68 by 2070, especially in its northwest range, particularlyacross France and the UK. Range loss is predicted to be between–0.20 and–0.39 in 2050and–0.21 and–0.65 in 2070, affecting the driest areas of the current range around theMediterranean, especially in North Africa.

Conclusions: Codonoblepharon forsterihas a relatively large EOO but relatively small AOO,probably due to habitat specialism. A major reason for recent declines appears to bewidespread abandonment of traditional‘pollarding’of trees. The potential climatic range ofthe species will shift significantly northwards over the next few decades.

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https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03736687.2022.2032541