Jiesper Alexandar Tristan Strandsbjerg Pedersen is conducting a Ph.D. in the Doctoral Program of Climate Change & Sustainable Development Policies by the University of Lisbon starting in 2016 within the CCIAMof cE3c. He is conducting the project “The History of the Futures: A historical, technic-scientific, and sociological analysis of the emissions scenarios used by IPCC 1990-2018”, under the supervision of Filipe Duarte Santos, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa (FC/UL) and Rob Swart, Wageningen University, Nederland. The History of the Futures Ph.D. project aims are:
(1) Characterize and analyze the scientific content of the IPCC scenarios with attention to both quantitative (model results) and qualitative aspects (narratives, storylines);
(2) Analyze the processes behind the IPCC scenarios to understand how the scenarios have been developed, by whom, through which processes, and what has influenced the development (scientifically and politically), and analyze how the IPCC work with a focus on the scenario work have been or have not been affected by political agendas;
(3) Analyze the ability of the scenarios used by IPCC to ‘predict’ the future emissions by comparing observed greenhouse emission with historical emission from the period of 1990-2018, and emissions scenarios developed outside IPCC;
(4) Analyze the use and incorporation of IPCC recommendations and emissions scenarios in climate change policy guidelines by governments USA, Portugal and EU, and in global climate governance between 1990-2018;
(5) Discuss and recommend possible strategy suggestions for scenario development in AR7 and pre-cautionary principles to support sustainable use of science concerning policymaking.