BLöschl, G., Hall, J., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R.A.P., Merz, B., et al. (2017) Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.Science, 357(6351), 588-590. DOI:10.1126/science.aan2506 (IF2016 37,2015; Q1 Multidisciplinary Sciences)
A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.