Casarejos, F., & Villas da Rocha, J. (2018) Envisioning societal achievement and legacy of intergenerational yield vis-à-vis essential precepts for sustainability and stability of Earth’s life-giving systems.Futures, 105, 91-103. DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2018.09.008 (IF2017 2,256; Q2 Planning & Development)
In light of cutting-edge discussions aimed at fostering a resilient and flourishing global society, this work proposes a cohesive approach to examine societal scenarios vis-à-vis essential precepts for sustainability and stability of Earth’s life-giving systems. The approach proposed encompasses a set of key indices for measuring the degree of achievement, parity, overshoot, and yield as well as legacy of intergenerational yield functions for modeling scenarios in three broad evolutionary contours: Barbarization, Conventional World and Great Transitions. The findings of this study emphasize that anthropogenic impacts set in motion by recent and current generations have already instated a critical status of instability for Earth’s life-giving systems. Portrayed forecasting scenarios indicate that if lower degrees of yield are assumed to consistently persist into the future, the societal legacy of intergenerational yield will evolve with an increasing speed towards worsening stages of Barbarization. By contrast, portrayed backcasting scenarios reveal that higher degrees of yield signify longer time horizons for Great Transitions towards global sustainability. These results also emphasize that for the purpose of achieving Great Transitions, an urgent and transformative societal change is imperative to ensure a sufficient legacy of intergenerational yield.